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Is the Current Surge in Available Homes Fact or Fiction?
Whether you are considering a move or just staying informed about the housing market, having the latest information is crucial. With all the latest headlines you might find yourself wondering, “is the current surge in available homes fact or fiction?” Let us help provide you some insight, follow along for a current update on the supply of homes for sale in your area. Whether you are in the market to buy or sell, the available inventory plays a significant role. Dive into the details below for insights.
The Truth About Today’s Housing Inventory:
The narrative the past few years has been centered around the scarcity of homes on the market. However, recent national data demonstrates a twist to the story that if your like most might have you questioning the truth. According to Realtor.com, inventory is showing signs of growth month-over-month in numerous regions across the country (highlighted in blue on the map below).
Looking at the map, nationally, the housing supply has increased just over 5% last month alone.
Does This Mean the Days of Limited Housing Inventory is Over?
Many people are wondering if the days of limited housing supply is behind us. This is a fantastic question. The short answer is no. Understanding the full picture here is important. Headlines are stating that inventory is up. The statement is true when compared to the most recent market, but when you look further back, data shows that there are still significantly less homes for sale now than typically listed in a more normal market.
Let’s discuss the graph below.
This graph demonstrates homes listed for sale during the month of October for the three most recent normal years compared to homes listed in the month of October in 2023. As you can see there are significantly less homes listed in 2023 than in that of a normal market. Viewing this helps explain comments like the one ResiClub Analytics, founder, Lance Lambert made where he said, “Housing market inventory is so far below pre-pandemic levels that October’s big jump is still just a drop in the bucket.”
At the end of the day, real estate is hyper-local and changes vastly between locations. It is of the utmost importance, especially in times like these, to look to your trusted real estate agent for clarification of the market as they will help you gain better understanding of the inventory situations in your specific market. Don’t have an agent? Connect with us here.
If You Are Looking to Buy:
You might discover more options than you have in the most recent months. However, it would behoove you to prepare yourself for low inventory. Find yourself a great agent that will share their expertise and strategies that have helped others navigate today’s ongoing low housing.
If You Are Looking to Sell:
Know that you have not missed your window of opportunity to potentially get multiple offers or see your house sell quickly. While inventory has picked up some nationally, overall, it is still low. Having a professional Realtor on your side can help you significantly in understanding the market you are in. A great agent can craft your home a unique marketing plan that meets the requirements of the market to get your home sold.
Regardless of weather you are looking to buy or sell a home, let’s connect so that you are up to date on all of the latest trends that could potentially impact your move.
Q2 2023 Gardner Report
If you are interested in discussing this in more detail with an agent connect with us here so we can schedule you an appointment.
State of The Nation’s Housing Explained
Harvard University’s latest edition of The State of the Nation’s Housing has arrived, and Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is here to break down what the data presented in the report means for the U.S. housing market in 2023 and beyond. Watch this video and if you have further questions you would like to discuss with a local agent call us at 360.675.5953 or connect with us here.
Mortgage Rate Predictions and Misconceptions
Written by Matthew Gardner
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York just released their 2023 Housing Survey, which shows how the U.S. population feels about the housing market. Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner digs into the mortgage rate predictions, showing how demographics played a role in the results.
This video on mortgage rate predictions is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Mortgage Rate Predictions
Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This month we’re going to take a look at the latest SCE Housing Survey, which gives us a really detailed look at consumers’ psyche in regard to the housing market.
I’ve always been fascinated by surveys, as they frequently give me insights that I simply don’t get from just looking at raw data and, as luck would have it, the New York Fed just released its 2023 Consumer Expectations Housing Survey. Now, this particular survey has always given me some great and often surprising insights as to how the U.S. population views the overall housing market. We certainly don’t have time to cover all of the questions that the survey poses, but there was one section I wanted to share with you today as it really resonated with me, and it relates to mortgage rates.
Will mortgage rates continue to rise?
The first question asked was where they expected mortgage rates to be one year from now. And as you see here that, on average, households expected rates to rise all the way up to 8.4%. Although some may see this as extreme, you can see that in the 2022 survey respondents predicted rates would hit 6.7%, almost exactly where they were at the beginning of this March.
And when asked where they thought rates would be three years from now, on average, households expected to see them climb to 8.8%. Now, that’s a rate we haven’t seen since early 1995!
Well, I’m not sure about you, but I was very surprised by these results as they counter just about every analyst’s expectation regarding where rates will be over the next few years. In fact, myself and every economist I know believes that rates will slowly pull back as we move through this year. I haven’t seen a single forecast suggesting that mortgage rates will rise to a level this country hasn’t seen in decades.
But as they say, the devil’s in the details. When I dug deeper into the numbers, it became very clear to me that demographics played a pretty big part in guiding people’s answers. Let me explain.
1-Year Mortgage Rate Expectations by Education
Here the data is broken down by educational achievement. You can see that survey respondents who didn’t have a college degree thought that mortgage rates would rise to 9.4% within a year. But college graduates were far more optimistic, and they expected rates to be in the high 6’s.
3-Year Mortgage Rate Expectations by Education
And when asked to look three years out, respondents without degrees expected rates to break above 10%. While college graduates saw them pulling back a little from their one-year expectations of 6.7%, down to 6.4%.
Now we are going to look at the survey results broken down by housing tenure.
1-Year Mortgage Rate Expectations by Tenure
And here you see that renters expect mortgage rates to be at almost 11% within a year. And homeowners also saw them rising, but only up to 7.3%.
3-Year Mortgage Rate Expectations by Tenure
And over the next three years, renters expected rates to break above 12%. That’s a level not seen since the fall of 1985. But homeowners expected to see rates at a somewhat more modest 7.4%.
So, what does this tell us? I see two things.
Firstly, the rapid increase in mortgage rates that we all saw starting in early 2022 has a lot of people believing that we will see rates continuing to rise, sometimes at a very fast pace, over the next few years. I mean, if it happened before, why can’t it happen again? And this mindset leads me to my second point, which is that it’s very clear that a lot of would-be home buyers just don’t understand how mortgage rates are calculated.
The bottom line here is that I see a potential buyer pool out there that needs educating and that can give an opportunity to brokers to discuss how rates are set and where the market is expecting to see them going forward.
This may alleviate the concerns that many households have who may be thinking that they will never be able to afford to buy a home because of where they expect borrowing costs to be in the future. Education is everything, don’t you agree?
As always, I’d love to get your thoughts on this topic so please comment below! Until next month, take care and I will see you all soon. Bye now.
To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
If you have further questions and would like to discuss with a Realtor connect with us here.
Windermere Produces the Best Luxury Brokers
When it comes to the Pacific Northwest’s real estate market, the name Windermere stands head and shoulders above the rest. With a longstanding reputation for excellence, this brokerage has been a household name for decades, thanks to its unmatched market share across all price points.
But when it comes to the luxury market, Windermere’s reputation really soars. With a keen ear tuned to the needs and desires of their clients and brokers representing the high-end market, Windermere has been able to put in place a series of qualifications, marketing resources, and organizational structures that ensure that their “Premier Properties” receive the exposure and attention they deserve.
Becoming a Windermere Premier Property in a given region is no small feat. Properties must meet certain qualifications and be approved by a local Premier Director, guaranteeing that only the finest, most prestigious homes make the cut. And for those truly exceptional luxury homes that start at a staggering $3 million, Windermere offers the W Collection, a showcase of properties that are not only stunning and unique but also benefit from a separate website and national and international portfolio.
But Windermere’s reputation in the high-end market isn’t just about its exclusive properties. It’s also about the extraordinary level of quality and service that they provide. Windermere’s brokers and staff are known for their unparalleled expertise, professionalism, and attention to detail, ensuring that every aspect of the home buying and selling experience is executed with the utmost care and consideration.
In short, Windermere is more than just a real estate brokerage; it’s a trusted partner in the luxury home market, providing a level of service and expertise that is simply unmatched in the industry. If you’re in the market for a truly exceptional property or looking to sell your luxury home, you won’t find a better partner than Windermere. Connect with a local Windermere broker by clicking here.
If you are interested in becoming a luxury broker on Whidbey Island, email us at KStavros@windermere.com.
Annual Report 2022
Are you interested in buying or selling, or just wanting to learn more about the market or just Whidbey Island in general? We are here to help! Connect with us here.
